After UFC 262 on Saturday night, someone other than Khabib Nurmagomedov will hold the UFC lightweight title for the first time since 2018.
Despite prodding from UFC President Dana White to fight once more, Nurmagomedov called it quits in March. The 32-year-old Russian sailed into the sunset with a perfect 29-0 record. He also notched notable wins over Conor McGregor, Dustin Poirier, Justin Gaethje and other notables during his dominant run.
However, Saturday’s UFC 262 pay-per-view headliner features two lightweight contenders who never got the chance to fight Nurmagomedov.
Michael Chandler and Charles Oliveira fight for Nurmagomedov’s vacated title this weekend in the finale of UFC 262’s 13-fight lineup. And if you want a little action on the fight, which takes place at Toyota Center in Houston, their title fight offers an array of betting options.
In fact, one of the wagers comes with hefty +10000 odds.
Bet $1, win $100 at UFC 262
Michael Chandler (22-5) and Charles Oliveira (30-8) enter UFC 262 with rather tight odds. Brazil’s Oliveira is a modest -134 favorite, while Nashville-based Chandler is a small +110 underdog at DraftKings, as of Tuesday.
At those odds, you’d need to bet $134 on Oliveira to clear $100 in profit if he wins. With Chandler, meanwhile, a winning $100 bet would result in $110 in profit.
However, why settle for -134 and +110 odds when you can get +10000 on either Chandler or Oliveira?
The guidelines for DraftKings’ 100-1 promotion for UFC 262 are pretty simple:
- The bet $1, win $100 promo is for new DraftKings depositors only, and you need to deposit at least $5 into your DraftKings Sportsbook account to qualify.
- Once you opt in, you get one single-use odds boost to use on the UFC 262 main event.
- Once your deposit clears, wager $1 on either Chandler or Oliveira on the moneyline to win the bout. Just be sure you do it before the start of the bout, and make sure your boosted odds are showing.
- If your fighter wins, your $1 bet pays off $100 in winnings.
- The promo excludes live bets, parlays, free bets, cash-out bets and voided bets.
Oliveira has won eight straight fights, seven via stoppage. He also holds the UFC record for career submission wins (14).
Meanwhile, Chandler is a former champion in the rival Bellator promotion. He knocked out Dan Hooker in his UFC debut, and he now has three straight knockout wins with six victories in his past seven fights overall.
So yeah, expect fireworks in this one.
Other ways to bet Chandler-Oliveira at UFC 262
If you’re new to MMA betting or just unfamiliar with the breadth of wagering options, UFC 262 offers plenty of variety.
In fact, with the Oliveira-Chandler main event alone, you can bet on the fight dozens of ways.
Here are a few that might be worth considering:
Betting round totals
As with other sports, MMA bettors can wager on the over-under for a fight.
The total is usually set at 1.5 or 2.5 rounds for three-round non-title fights. However, with a five-round title fight like Chandler-Oliveira, the total can range from 1.5 to 4.5 rounds.
For Saturday’s big fight, DraftKings is actually offering wagering on all of the totals:
- Over 1.5 rounds (-190), under 1.5 rounds (+140)
- Over 2.5 rounds (+115), under 1.5 rounds (-152)
- Over 3.5 rounds (+175), under 1.5 rounds (-240)
- Over 4.5 rounds (+215), under 1.5 rounds (-305)
Chandler and Oliveira have combined for 52 career wins, and 44 of them have come via knockout or submission. So an under bet is understandably tempting.
But another option is to bet that the fight does not go to decision. Basically, as long as the ref waves off the fight before the last second of the bout, you win. However, you’ll pay a bit of a premium (-345), so it might work best to use it as a parlay piece.
However, if you think both fighters are durable enough to make the final bell, betting that the fight goes to decision has +240 odds.
Chandler via submission
If Chandler is your pick, you have many ways to bet him.
But some of the longest odds, with a big potential payoff, are betting on him to win via submission.
Although “Iron Mike” has been a KO machine in recent years, he was an NCAA Division I All-American wrestler at the University of Missouri. He’s also registered seven career submission victories, so he’s got some legit grappling skills.
Oliveira is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, so he’s also quite adept on the canvas. However, he suffered back-to-back losses via choke in 2016, and in a five-round fight, things can get crazy. Oliveira could tire, he could get wobbled, or he could even suffer an injury. When any of those things happen, a sub finish can quickly follow.
And with +1400 odds for Chandler to win via submission, a small bet would have a big payoff.
Oliveira wins in Round 4 or Round 5
Although late-fight stoppages are somewhat common in boxing, they remain rare in MMA.
If an MMA fight ends via stoppage, it’s most likely to occur in Round 1. The probability dips in each subsequent round.
That’s the primary reason you can get some healthy odds if you bet on Oliveira to win in Round 4 (+1400) or win in Round 5 (+2000) at UFC 262.
Chandler isn’t easy to put away, but the 35-year-old has logged a lot of fight time in his 13 years of professional MMA. Eventually, even the strongest chins, healthiest cardio and most rugged durability start to falter. And Oliveira has taken many fighters to their breaking point.
If Oliveira can chip away in the early rounds, it might pay off in the later rounds for a late-bout stoppage.
Chandler vs. Oliveira ends via tie
Look, if we want to get really crazy, betting on Chandler-Oliveira to end via draw pays off handsomely, with +6600 odds.
Sure, draws are exceptionally rare in the UFC. Despite hosting more than 500 fights per year, only about four to six of those matchups end via draw, majority draw or split draw.
They’re rare because of the nature of 10-9 scoring, combined with an odd number of rounds in UFC fights. However, they’re more likely to happen with:
- Point deductions for fouls such as eye pokes or fence grabs
- Early stoppages and partial-fight scoring, often because of fight-ending injuries from accidental fouls
- Exceptionally close rounds that prompt rare 10-10 scores
- Lopsided rounds that force the judges to issue a 10-8 score instead of 10-9
It takes a perfect storm of circumstances to create a draw in an MMA fight. However, that’s the reason it comes with hefty 66-1 odds for this fight.
And with a fight as evenly matched yet unpredictable as Chandler vs. Oliveira, bettors can look to capitalize on the uncertainty by taking a flyer on the draw bet.