UFC 272: Alternative Ways To Bet Saturday’s Lopsided Main Event

Posted on March 4, 2022

Although a FanDuel Virginia promo for UFC 272 offers one no-brainer bet, there are other ones for Saturday’s lopsided main event.

UFC 272 is the latest pay-per-view event from the world’s preeminent MMA promotion.

The event takes place at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. And prior to the main card (10 p.m., PPV), you can catch prelims on ESPN+ (6 p.m.) and ESPN (8 p.m.).

Thanks to FanDuel in Virginia, you can get 30-1 odds on either of UFC 272’s main event fighters: Colby Covington or Jorge Masvidal.

But beyond those bets, you might need to get creative to find a betting angle with a respectable payout.

30-1 odds for UFC 272 main event

As of Friday afternoon, former UFC interim welterweight champion Covington (16-3) was a -330 favorite. The comeback on Masvidal (35-15), meanwhile, was +265.

However, thanks to FanDuel’s UFC 272 promo, you can get 30-1 odds, or +3000, on either fighter.

New Players get a Risk Free Bet at FanDuel Sportsbook

More specifically, you can bet up to $5 and win up to $150 if your chosen fighter wins the match.

This promo is for new users who register and make a first-time deposit. Then simply place a bet on Covington or Masvidal on the moneyline. (Desktop users will be prompted to download the FanDuel VA mobile app).

Because of the lopsided odds, you’re probably best served by betting on Covington. After all, with -330 odds, he has an implied win probability of nearly 77%.

But given Covington’s obnoxious “persona” out of the cage, we could understand you siding with Masvidal if you pick with your heart instead of your head.

The buildup to this fight has been a cringefest, even by MMA’s already dismal standards.

But what if you still want to bet the main event, even without the UFC 272 promo from FanDuel? Beyond the bet $5, win $150 promo, how else can you wager on Covington vs. Masvidal?

Thankfully, when it comes to UFC betting, each fight has a seemingly endless array of options at sportsbooks in Virginia.

Other ways to bet Covington vs. Masvidal

Saturday’s UFC 272 lineup features more than just that main event. In all, the seven-hour card will feature 13 bouts. (And if you’re looking for possible betting angles for those other bouts, check out my Covington-Masvidal betting card on Twitter.)

But what if the main event is your jam? What if the contrived bad blood between Covington and Masvidal, who are former teammates, is just too hard to pass up?

Good news, fight fans: Every UFC bout offers multiple betting options and wagering types.

When on FanDuel, simply click on the matchup to open a massive menu of prop betting options.

Here are some of those possibilities that I’m considering for Saturday’s UFC 272 Covington-Masvidal headliner.

Over/under 4.5 rounds

Instead of betting on who wins the fight, you can bet on the total length of the fight instead. With an over-under bet in MMA, you’re betting whether or not the fight lasts longer than a set number of rounds.

For three-round fights, the total is usually 1.5 rounds or 2.5 pounds (each round is five minutes long).

And for five-round headlining fights such as Covington vs. Masvidal, the total is usually 1.5, 2.5, 3.5 or 4.5 rounds.

A little more than half of Masvidal and Covington’s combined victories have come via decision. And despite the lopsided moneyline odds, the sportsbooks clearly expect this fight to be somewhat competitive and go multiple rounds.

As of Friday, FanDuel had set the total at 4.5 rounds, with the over -142 and the under +112.

Fight goes to decision

I lean toward the over in this fight. And if you do too, there’s another bet worth considering.

Rather than betting the total, you can wager on whether you think the fight goes the distance, with neither fighter scoring a stoppage:

  • Fight goes to decision: -122
  • Fight does not go to decision: -106

Sure, I would then need the fight to go an extra 2.5 minutes to win my bet. But as a reward, a get a bigger payoff. On a winning $100 bet, over 4.5 rounds would net $70.42 in profit. But if I bet that the fight goes to decision and I win, I’d net $81.97, which is good for an extra $10.55.

Covington wins by decision

Now, what if I’m convinced that the fight will go the distance – but, I also think Covington is going to win?

In that case, you can enhance your potential payout even further by choosing “Covington to win by decision.” In addition to predicting a decision, the “winning method” market can also include:

  • Fighter wins by KO/TKO
  • Fighter wins by submission

Although Covington is -330 straight up, you get almost even money (-105) if you choose Covington wins by decision instead.

Sure, it stings if you pick a fighter to win by decision and he instead scores a knockout or submission victory. After all, your fighter wins, but you lose. But for the extra payoff potential, it’s an option worth considering.

Fight ends in Round 1

Instead of a marathon, what if you expect a heated firefight that will result in a quick winner? What if you expect the UFC 272 main event to be a speedy one?

Again, we turn to the props menu and look under the “Round Props” tab. There, we can bet on when a fight ends, regardless of the winning fighter.

In this case, FanDuel is offering +490 odds on Covington-Masvidal ending in the first round. Other options include:

  • Round 2: +700
  • Round 3: +850
  • Round 4: +1000
  • Round 5: +1100

Fight ends in draw

Ties are rare in MMA. With the 10-point-must system that’s also used in boxing, MMA fights are usually scheduled for an odd number of rounds to help avoid draws.

But they do happen. And they’re often the result of:

  • A very lopsided round that earns a fighter a 10-8 score instead of 10-9
  • A 10-10 round due to there being no clear winner
  • A point deduction due to a fighter’s repeated fouls (eye-pokes, groin shots, cage-grabs, etc.)

With heated rivalry fights, things can often get wild, which opens the door for fouls and other anomalies. In the case of Masvidal vs. Covington, FanDuel is laying +5000 odds for the fight ending in a draw. That means a $10 bet would profit a whopping $5,000.

Still, draws are exceptionally rare. Despite the UFC hosting nearly 600 fights per year, the organization has never seen more than seven draws in a year.

Photo by AP / Jim Young
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Dann Stupp

Dann Stupp is a longtime sports journalist who’s written and edited for The Athletic, USA Today, ESPN, MLB.com and other outlets. He lives in Lexington, Virginia.

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